MMC Magazine

The shift to electric vehicles (EVs) is unchanging; however, movement varies

Changing trends in the EU

In July 2021, the EU announced its “Fit for 55” package of new proposals aimed at reducing 2030 CO2 emissions by at least 55 % from 2021 levels. In response to this new target, the EU proposed limiting sales of new vehicles in Europe to EVs and FCVs from 2035. With this proposal it was assumed that beginning in 2035, the sale of internal combustion engines (ICEs) would be prohibited.

However, resistance from Germany and other countries against the exclusion of e-fuel vehicles caused a compromise in the policy to allow the continuing sale of e-fuel vehicles beyond 2035. A synthetic combination of captured CO2 and hydrogen, e-fuel emits zero CO2. In other words, e-fuel is carbon-neutral.

Behind the call for compromise was concern about power supply. An increase in EV production without an increase in the supply of electricity could lead to power shortages in Europe. This has raised expectations globally for fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), e-fuel vehicles (EFVs), and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHVs).

On the other hand, China is experiencing rapid growth in EV production. Being unable to compete against ICE production in Japan, Europe and the United States, China looked to strengthen its EV industry. The government facilitated this policy by providing subsidies to EV businesses, which resulted in increased sales of EVs. The influence of this policy was made clear when demand for EVs dropped rapidly after the Chinese government announced the discontinuation of subsidies at the end of 2022. As a result, the policy was changed again to continue subsidies, and demand is currently recovering.

Indonesia is also promoting EVs on a national scale. The reason for this is to prevent air pollution, which is becoming an increasingly serious problem in the country, and the government is providing subsidies to promote the switch to EVs. As a result, the country has overtaken Thailand, which had been ahead of Indonesia in terms of EV sales.

Japan also considers employment in the automotive industry

In Japan, Toyota has announced a plan to increase global EV sales to 1.5 million units per year by 2026 and to 3.5 million units by 2022, an extremely ambitious target given the company‘s current EV sales performance of around 24 000 units in FY2022. However, Toyota‘s basic strategy is considered to be an all-round strategy that includes not only EVs but also hydrogen engines.

Japan‘s electricity situation is similar to Europe, in that if all Japanese cars were to be replaced by EVs, the amount of electricity equivalent to the output of several new nuclear power plants would be required. There is also an undeniable risk of a shortage of rare metals for batteries.     
The supply of rare metals is a global problem, and in June 2023 the EU adopted a draft regulation requiring the recycling of batteries used in EVs and other vehicles in the region. This stipulates that 50 % of lithium, the main material, must be recycled by 2027 and 80 % by 2031.

There is also concern that the rapid transition to EVs may have a significant impact on the domestic labour market in Japan. Since the transition from ICE vehicles to EVs significantly reduces the number of parts used, it is estimated that of the approximately 5.5 million employees currently engaged in the automotive industry, from 700,000 to
1 million people may lose their jobs. Considering the industry’s position as a major employment market in Japan, manufacturers will be searching hard for ways to protect their employees.

Looking at the global trend as a whole, the move toward a complete transition to EVs in Europe seems to be slowing slightly; how­ever, China continues its bid to be the world’s leader in the transition to EVs
while Japan is exploring a variety of options, including PHVs, because of concerns about employment. Under these circumstances, it remains a challenge to predict whether all the countries around the globe will start moving in the same direction. However, from the viewpoint of carbon neutrality, it is clear that the manufacture of ICE vehicles will be reduced in the future.

Carbon neutrality is a global goal

Carbon neutrality is not just a priority in the automotive industry. It has become a global pursuit. In its 6th Assessment Report issued in 2023, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasized the need for a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. In response, UN Secretary General Antonio
Guterres called on member nations to move the schedule forward to achieve reduced emission targets.

Corporations have advanced their approaches to reducing emissions. America’s Apple Inc. has asked its global supply chains to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030, and the same trend is being seen in the automotive industry. In fact, one European automobile manufacturer has asked its suppliers in Japan to achieve the CO2 emission targets it has set and has hinted strongly that suppliers who fail to meet them would be dropped as partners.

In the past, safety standards in machine tools were established on the basis of EU standards. Similarly, standards in the automotive industry are essentially set by Europe. It is quite likely that European car manufacturers will require carbon neutrality in the supply chain in the future, and parts manufacturers will need to prepare accordingly.

Accelerated transition to aluminium parts

The transition from ICE vehicles to EVs means the phasing out of traditional engines and transmissions. A prime example of this transition is the e-Axle, a traction unit for EVs that includes a motor, speed reducer and an inverter package. The e-Axle, a core EV component, will become increasingly compact, and some 30 % of the approximately 30,000 parts that go into the manufacture of ICE vehicles are expected to become unnecessary. On the other hand, new types of components for the e-Axle and other units will be required.

EVs are equipped with high-capacity lithium-ion batteries, which makes the vehicle heavier than ICEs of the same size. Therefore, a shift to aluminium materials is expected in order to reduce weight, and some are seeking to substitute metals with plastic resin. According to data from the US market, the average annual growth rate of aluminium alloys used in passenger cars is expected to be 3.5 %; by 2030, and the aluminium alloy used per passenger car is expected to be about 260 kg, equivalent to about 15 % of the total weight of a passenger car. This shift to increase aluminium components will create new demand for the tools needed for aluminium machining.

Considering the popularization of European standards, approaches to carbon neutrality in component production has also started. This is seen for example in the movement to downsize conventional production lines. In response to this, the shift of the reduction of spindle size from BT40 to BT30 has also moved forward.

Average Annual Growth Rate
According to the data from American markets, the CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of aluminium alloy will grow 3.5 % per year. The amount of aluminium alloy per vehicle by 2030 is predicted to be approximately 258 kg (570 lb), or about 15 % of the total weight of components used per passenger vehicle.

Helping to reduce CO2 emissions utilizing highly accurate simulation

Keeping pace with the shift to EVs, Mitsubishi Materials Corporation is developing a wide range of tools for machining aluminium and downsized production lines. Furthermore, we are also reinforcing our digital solutions to support the move toward carbon neutrality.

We consider these movements to be a shift from selling things to selling concepts. We utilize the results of CO2 reduction from individual customers that have different goals to create customer-specific simulations based on facility size, type of work, drawing data, machining programs, etc. to visualize cutting resistance during machining. This allows us to accurately judge in advance whether we can truly achieve the desired CO2 emission reduction goals.
 
These simulations make it possible to conduct assessments at Mitsubishi Materials Technical Centres using actual machines, this helps customers reduce their workload in the test phase. We are able to provide highly accurate simulations because of our impressive store of Big Data and extensive know-how based on our long-term experience with the data. Our simulation services have provided about 800 analyses over the past five years.

Mitsubishi Materials has already advanced initiatives for carbon neutrality, even raising our greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in February 2023 following a review of our progress. At the same time, we have been collecting our used cemented carbide tools for reuse as raw material. Through such initiatives, we are also supporting customer approaches to carbon neutrality.